2013-14 Hot Stove: The Starting Pitcher Options

Since it would be inordinately difficult to post on 10-15 options in the market, and all the statistical analysis or insights, I have decided to put this up at DOC STOC and below.

It details the following pitchers, their recent numbers and graphics of importance gathered at the typical sources of Fangraphs, Brooks Baseball:

• Erik Bedard
• AJ Burnett
• Scott Feldman
• Roy Halladay
• Dan Haren
• Tim Hudson
• Phil Hughes
• Joe Saunders
• Edison Volquez

This powerpoint shows the basic insights I had about these pitchers and salary expected for them. None are the top tier market setters. (You must download the PPT to get the information correctly (as I used animation to get less slides, but more analysis on them...))

I have also done analysis on Matt Garza, Ricky Nolasco, Scott Kazmir, and Masahiro Tanaka earlier this year. Those are found here (Garza v. Nolasco) and one for Kazmir plus Erik Bedard.

The man who changed baseball pitching by his surgery: Tommy John

Pitching is a premium commodity. Too many wind up hurt, as 1/3 now undergo Tommy John Surgery. Shoulder surgery on the labrum is more problematic in respect to what the Tommy John surgery success rate stands at now. As such, it seems the thin pitching market will continue on. Pitchers will get nice salaries not based on top-end performance, but potential to continue to pitch. As teams will lock up their gems if they can get to 25 without incident of arm trouble.

Yet, the offense in the league is down. So, if you got a decent enough 4.00 FIP pitcher, it's not so bad. As long as you can score around 4.5-4.7 runs, on average, to support him, wins will come a plenty.

Enjoy the presentation below! DOWNLOAD and view in Powerpoint!

No Rest in Fantasy Baseball: Cash for Clunkers, Fines for Plunkers, and Punk'd Moves

Shortly after my last post, Kevin Youkilis decided that a bean ball war needed his escalation. I can understand the need to flex one’s muscles and show that you not gonna be anyone’s Pedro Martinez’s “punk bitch,” but Youk got five games as a pine warmer. (1/10 of Manny "not 100%Manny" Ramirez's suspension for the worst offense we currently rail against…steroids.)

The opposing pitcher Rick Porcello got 5 games, one start out of the rotation. So the punk is on Youk. (bottom of the picture.)

Recently, the cash for clunkers program has taken off. The idea of giving an incentive/rebate to get a hunk of junk and gas-addicted vehicle off the bridge to nowhere has boded well. Baseball teams often take a scrap heap worthy player and rebuild him to his old, not-so- clunkerish form. At least in theory.

And so, the Phillies recently gave cash to a clunker pitcher in Pedro “Punk” Martinez. (I call him one because he threw down a septuagenarian…ex-Bo Sox manager, Don Zimmer.)

But Pedro had a better day than Notre Dame WR/wannabe starter Jeff Samardzija who, along with Sean Marshall, got punked out of the ballpark by the Phillies power quartet: Howard, Utley, Rollins and Ibanez. And another punk in the stands let The Flying Hawaiian, Shane Victorino, have some alcoholic fruit punch to go along with his uniform without a Wailuku Lei.

No Luaus for Mr. Victorino are planned in Chicago. He’ll be happy to sue that bleacher dude, without the surfboard, and whomever feels spry enough to take over ownership of the Cubs this season. Bummer.

Meanwhile, Rich Harden gets cheated by the rain Gods (not in Hawaii) on Sunday, God’s day of rest. My pitching seems more contented to rest – no wins, dead last and a growing gap – than to pitch to victory.

God created the world in six days…then he rested because it was good. Well, in my case, there is no rest for the wicked, wacky, and winless warriors on my punk'd pitching staff. (Aside from Roy Halladay… he got royally punked over.)

All in a day’s work – this punk is over.

(JP currently is running first! in a Yahoo! fantasy baseball league. Just took over that spot today.)

New: Appropo Song by Cage The Elephant: Ain't No Rest For the Wicked



Classic Live Version: Tracy Chapman, Fast Car

Chicago Deal or No Deal: Carlos Zambrano heading out?

With the recent fisticuffs between P Carlos Zambrano and C Michael Barrett, one has to think the Cubs are doomed to repeat another franchise mistake, that of trading away a quality player or two.

In this case, I’ve heard stories on 670 The Score in Chicago of Carlos Zambrano being a possible candidate, since he is a free agent at the end of the year. This would be a deal that would require a significant price back, if it were to be consummated. Something along the lines of a high-caliber position player or several top prospects to sway me.

The Cubs made a strategic error in not signing Zambrano before 2007. As a result, the cash that would have kept him is now in players like Derosa, Izturis, Floyd, Ward and, of course, Soriano, Lilly and Marquis. The Cubs flubbed by not trying to attempt a legit deal – 5 years at 75-85 million – on a guy that has actually performed better than any other Cub since Greg Maddux was in Chicago the first time around.

In actuality, the Cubs have had the luck (2003-2006) in having two pitchers, Maddux and Zambrano, pitch consistently for them. Zambrano numbers stack up well against the Santanas, Oswalts, Halladays and Smoltzs of the MLB. The Cubs also could have had Dontrelle Willis, since they drafted him, but traded him to get Matt Clement.

Zambrano’s recent attitude comes from fiery disposition. He also feels cheated, most likely, and wants a paycheck in line with performance. He also won the sliver slugger award for pitchers in 2006, in much the same vein as Dontrelle did, and likely feels the Cubs overlook him while fawning over Kerry Wood and Mark Prior, whose injuries are amongst the annals of major league history now.

It is pretty clear Zambrano is an elite pitcher at only 26 years old. (Table right) While the Cubs went gaga over Mark Prior, they forgot about Big Z. As a result they will likely trade away a long-term helper to a team that needs it sorely.

But that is the Cubs tradition...