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Friday, November 15, 2013

2013-14 Hot Stove: The Starting Pitcher Options

Since it would be inordinately difficult to post on 10-15 options in the market, and all the statistical analysis or insights, I have decided to put this up at DOC STOC and below.

It details the following pitchers, their recent numbers and graphics of importance gathered at the typical sources of Fangraphs, Brooks Baseball:
  • Erik Bedard
  • AJ Burnett
  • Scott Feldman
  • Roy Halladay
  • Dan Haren
  • Tim Hudson
  • Phil Hughes
  • Joe Saunders
  • Edison Volquez
This powerpoint shows the basic insights I had about these pitchers and salary expected for them. None are the top tier market setters. (You must download the PPT to get the information correctly (as I used animation to get less slides, but more analysis on them...))

I have also done analysis on Matt Garza, Ricky Nolasco, Scott Kazmir, and Masahiro Tanaka earlier this year. Those are found here (Garza v. Nolasco) and one for Kazmir plus Erik Bedard.
The man who changed baseball pitching by his surgery: Tommy John

Pitching is a premium commodity. Too many wind up hurt, as 1/3 now undergo Tommy John Surgery. Shoulder surgery on the labrum is more problematic in respect to what the Tommy John surgery success rate stands at now. As such, it seems the thin pitching market will continue on. Pitchers will get nice salaries not based on top-end performance, but potential to continue to pitch. As teams will lock up their gems if they can get to 25 without incident of arm trouble.

Yet, the offense in the league is down. So, if you got a decent enough 4.00 FIP pitcher, it's not so bad. As long as you can score around 4.5-4.7 runs, on average, to support him, wins will come a plenty.

Enjoy the presentation below! DOWNLOAD and view in Powerpoint!


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