Chicago Deal or No Deal: Carlos Zambrano heading out?

With the recent fisticuffs between P Carlos Zambrano and C Michael Barrett, one has to think the Cubs are doomed to repeat another franchise mistake, that of trading away a quality player or two.

In this case, I’ve heard stories on 670 The Score in Chicago of Carlos Zambrano being a possible candidate, since he is a free agent at the end of the year. This would be a deal that would require a significant price back, if it were to be consummated. Something along the lines of a high-caliber position player or several top prospects to sway me.

The Cubs made a strategic error in not signing Zambrano before 2007. As a result, the cash that would have kept him is now in players like Derosa, Izturis, Floyd, Ward and, of course, Soriano, Lilly and Marquis. The Cubs flubbed by not trying to attempt a legit deal – 5 years at 75-85 million – on a guy that has actually performed better than any other Cub since Greg Maddux was in Chicago the first time around.

In actuality, the Cubs have had the luck (2003-2006) in having two pitchers, Maddux and Zambrano, pitch consistently for them. Zambrano numbers stack up well against the Santanas, Oswalts, Halladays and Smoltzs of the MLB. The Cubs also could have had Dontrelle Willis, since they drafted him, but traded him to get Matt Clement.

Zambrano’s recent attitude comes from fiery disposition. He also feels cheated, most likely, and wants a paycheck in line with performance. He also won the sliver slugger award for pitchers in 2006, in much the same vein as Dontrelle did, and likely feels the Cubs overlook him while fawning over Kerry Wood and Mark Prior, whose injuries are amongst the annals of major league history now.

It is pretty clear Zambrano is an elite pitcher at only 26 years old. (Table right) While the Cubs went gaga over Mark Prior, they forgot about Big Z. As a result they will likely trade away a long-term helper to a team that needs it sorely.

But that is the Cubs tradition...

A Cubs Analysis (January 2007): Was I in the ballpark?

With the Cubs, the predictions are almost more important than the season itself. Looking from a sunny bleacher, the grass is always greener before the season (if it is warm and she's wearing a bikini) than it is in September, usually. After 99 years since the last 'dynasty' of the Cubs, and when the Wright Flier and Teddy's Big Stick still were relevant topics, we are thinking: this is our year.

Lou Pinella will entertain the media. Managing in the fishbowl of Chicago, Lou's current mellow nature will turn back into Fighting Lou. Once he sees Jacque Jones airmail a cut off or Ramirez take a snooze on a pop up, he'll have plenty to say, and the media will too. Luckily, he can fall back on his New York experiences to adroitly handle Chicago scribes, whose only real talent is to gossip about how much money someone makes, a player's girlfriend or whether throwing at a player constitutes domestic violence on the field.

The Cubs will improve by 20 games. Starting at 66 wins, this should not be impossible. Derrek Lee at 2004 statistics: .280(.360), 32HR, 110RBI, Ramirez at: .290 (.360), 35HR, 110RBI and Soriano at:.285(.330), 40HR, 95RBI, 25SB and Michael Barrett at: .275(.350), 15HR, 70 RBI provides plenty of right hand pop. Jacque Jones is the sole left hand man and will not cut it. Ryan Theriot should be the starter at 2B. He's got more plate patience than DeRosa, he's faster and younger. Pinella will see this, I hope, and insert him as either #1 or #2 hitter with successful output of: .275 (.345), 5 HR, 45RBIs, 35SBs. DeRosa, hot prospect Felix Pie and Angel Pagan, will support Murton in the outfield. Izturis and Cedeno will somehow get .260 (.310), 5 HR, 45 RBIs and 15 SBs between them. 800 Runs scored.

But what about pitching and fielding??? Zambrano is an ace. Likely, if not abused like a 'Dusty' doll, will get 200 IP, sub 2.75 ERA and 17-20 wins. Ted Lilly is a 4.30 ERA in the American League. Can he improve against weaker lineups? I believe so to the tune of 15 Wins and 3.75ERA. That leaves 5 pitchers for 3 starting spots. Rich Hill. Jason Marquis. Wade Miller. Sean Marshall. Mark Prior. I don't expect better than 30 wins from the back end. That's 65 Wins.

Piniella in 1990 ran a three-headed monster out to win ballgames from the bullpen: Rob Dibble, Randy Myers, Norm Charlton. (Forgotten is Tim Layana.) Pinnella will use Neal Cotts, Scott Eyre, Bob Howry, Kerry Wood and Dempster to form a five-headed Dragon to battle through. Mark Prior and Kerry Wood are likely relievers playing starters with all their injuries. Somehow Lou will get 21 wins - blackjack! - like he did in 1990 without one 16-game winner on a 91-win team. The Cubs will allow 750 Runs. 86 Wins!!! Yeah!!! (If Bill James formula works…)

Cubs will trade Mark Prior, after a nice two-month run of pitching, in late July for an thirty-something outfielder from California. (Garrett Anderson???) It's totally possible, I mean, whoever the Cubs draft, and destine great expectations for, is soon hurt, ineffective or disillusioned. Prior has issues that someone drinking beer with him could only know. Going after an older player, with a high salary, assuming he's not hot, or getting hot, or is soon retiring, is a maneuver the Cubs make at least thrice (not twice) a decade. At this moment, I know nothing about Anderson, except he's 35 in June, which makes him eligible for the Cubs Care for Old Outfielders Plan. And Prior will go back to 2003 form and win 15 games for a decade in LA-LA Land where 6' blondes appear in bad action movies. El Paso!!!

If Lou gets to manage for four or five years, expect a playoff. Or maybe it is 1969 all over again. With Alfonso Soriano being here until he's well past his prime, the Cubs better get it now…in 2007! But given they spent 300 million this off season, even at 100 wins, that's 3 million per win. If only 75 wins, it 4 million per Cubs victory. Wow. Absolutely…wow!!!