Masahiro Tanaka to the Detroit Tigers: Is the plan for Dombrowski & Towers to Improve by Risk Analysis?

Masahiro Tanaka: The Next Ace of Detroit???

First Dombrowski Domino: Miguel Cabrera Can Deliver At 1st Base

Last week, Detroit and Texas pulled off one of those trades that shook the MLB world because it made so much sense. Prince Fielder to Texas and Ian Kinsler to Detroit, and Miguel Cabrera to first base, a place he stops by frequently en route to a .320 plus average with 5+ WAR. In that trade, Fielder moved to a hitter's haven; Kinsler provides decent 2B glove, good contact, and most importantly: a much shorter, less pricier commitment. Cabrera replacement at 3B potentially Nick Castellanos.

 Ian Kinsler vs. Prince Fielder Analysis @ Various Rates of Returns

Rate of Return	8%
Time	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
Year	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	Value($M)
Ian Kinsler	$16.0	$16.0	$14.0	$11.0	$11.0			$68.0
Det Adj. Payroll	$16.0	$14.8	$17.1	$13.5	$12.5	$4.1	$3.8	$81.8
Prince Fielder	$24.0	$24.0	$24.0	$24.0	$24.0	$24.0	$24.0	$168.0
Detroit Pays TX			$6.0	$6.0	$6.0	$6.0	$6.0	$30.0
Texas Adj. Payroll	$24.0	$22.2	$15.4	$14.3	$13.2	$12.3	$11.3	$112.8
Differential	$M	Prefers		Yr-W	Ian	Prince	$Ian/WAR	$Prince/WAR
5%	33.85	Detroit		0	3.5	5	4.57	4.80
6.50%	32.34			1	3	4	4.94	5.56
8%	30.95	Neutral		2	2.5	3.5	6.86	4.41
10%	29.28			3	2	3	6.75	4.76
12%	27.78	Texas		4	2	2.5	6.25	5.29
				5	0	2	-	6.13
				6	0	1.5	-	7.56
				Total	13	21.5	6.29	5.24

The breakdown of the financials at various Rates of Returns shows the relative savings Detroit got and the potential upside from this domino falling in place. In real terms the savings is not $70M. Detroit depending on interest rates (the cost of capital and return rate expected for such risks) will be more in line to obtain only $31,000,000 in actual real savings at 8% Rate of Return.

Detroit will save the money, to be sure, but it hinges on how Prince declines or Ian declines. I made a very modest assumption on the fall off of Prince. I think he's start off well in Texas, all-star. Meanwhile, Ian will be about his normal rate of WAR, aside from one monster year in 2011. The differential of cost per WAR reflects Ian as a cheap front side option, whereas, Prince costs a bit more in those first years and his final years. Others peg it this way from MLB Trade Rumors:

• Dave Cameron of Fangraphs loves the trade for Detroit, as they escape the burden of Fielder's contract and replace him with a player Cameron feels will post a similar WAR total in 2014. Plus, he adds, the $76MM savings would be enough to potentiall add Curtis Granderson and Joe Nathan to the fold. "Kinsler, Granderson, and Nathan, or Prince Fielder? These aren’t even close," writes Cameron.
• Cameron also analyzed the deal from the Rangers' point of view, and while he's not as quick to heap praise on Texas, he understands the thinking and doesn't consider it a loss for the team. GM Jon Daniels found a good way to move Kinsler and add a first baseman, and opened up a hole for someone who is expected to become a very good player, says Cameron, "...But it was an expensive trade to make, and no team has unlimited resources."

The Next Step: Japanese Import Lands in Detroit

Detroit can now do various things with that money saved. Owner and former minor leaguer Mike Ilitch, at 84, likely can't spend all his money made from pizzas, Little Caesar's, and other numerous ventures. So, he may have given permission to Dombrowski to go for broke on a few candidates: Robinson Cano, Jacoby Ellsbury, Shin Soo Choo, or Masahiro Tanaka.

Tanaka? Why? Tigers had plenty of pitching for they post season, they just came up short, partly due to Fielder.

Well, Max Scherzer, represented Scott Boras, is in his final arbitration/soon-to-walk year. Boras also represents Ellsbury and Choo, and once did Cano, now represented by Jay-Z's new agency. So, no matter what you will be dealing with either Boras, or the new Boras, who wants to bid up Cano to astronomical levels ($300 million over a decade!) Even the mighty Yankees balked.

Scherzer's extension will be based off his last two seasons. Boras will move the needle towards a 5-6 year deal at $25 million on a 30-year old pitcher, who has been durable and reliable, but is: 5 years older than the Masahiro Tanaka.

Tanaka was analyzed on this blog. At that moment, I felt $90-100 million felt about right. I have reconsidered that once you factor in the new $25M per team in TV MLB revenues, also discussed on this blog he's gonna be well over a $100 million dollar add option. The market is slim on top tier pitching as teams are generally risk-adverse to give up young pitchers who are evaluated as top-of-the-rotation possibilities, until their market prices (20M+/yr) drives them out of price range of mid-to-small market teams. Those teams then look for other top-tier prospects in return - pitching if possible - and then repeat the cycle as needed. 


The short of it on Tanaka: It is not necessarily more risky if you think Masahiro Tanaka and his 24-0 record in Japan and stuff can be a six-year-$150 million dollar deal, plausibly producing 30WAR in his prime years. Even at 20 WAR, while you  potentially overpay $44.6M, accounting for rate of return at 8%, that will be mostly negated by $31M in savings from the Fielder deal if you were Detroit in this example. If Tanaka lives up to Yu Darvish-lite comparisons, he's worth the $80 million bid and $70 million sign over 6 years.

That said, the upfront investment costs of $80M is substantial and a regular sign would provide unique savings too. But the New York Daily News puts it this way:

Masahiro Tanaka, a 25-year-old right-handed pitcher for the Rakuten Golden Eagles, has what a teammate describes as a bulldog competitive nature and has drawn comparisons to Greg Maddux for his pitching precision. He threw an eye-popping 160 pitches in the only game he lost all season - Game 6 of the Japan Series - and then closed out the championship clincher the next night.

Several baseball folks said they could see Tanaka eventually scoring between $50-75 million, or more, for Rakuten in a posting fee and then getting perhaps $75 million more in a contract from his new team. That’d made him the priciest Japanese pitcher ever, passing Yu Darvish, who commanded a $51.7 million posting fee and a $60 million contract two winters ago.

For all that money, a club would be getting a pitcher who was 99-35 with a 2.30 ERA over seven seasons in Japan. Tanaka can “touch 97 (miles per hour) with his fastball and pitch around 93,” says a big-league scout sent to Japan last season to evaluate him.

The scout says Tanaka’s fastball is his best pitch of the six (fastball, curve, slider, changeup, cutter, splitter) he can throw.

Tanaka vs. Scherzer Financial Analysis

Masahiro Tanaka -

As you see, it ain't simple financially. But there are other motivations aside from just picking a relatively unknown to America, but obviously well-scouted Japanese pitcher, over a Cy Young award winner. That's leads to the final step.

The Final Step: Max Scherzer Traded back to Arizona

This one, cooked up by my zombie brain, takes place in a world with AZ President Kevin Towers being goaded a little more and then lubricated with alcohol. However, bare with me as I try to improve two teams to battle their nemeses in their respective leagues.

Detroit has 2013 Cy Young award winner Max Scherzer in his final season. He's now an ace, his xFIP (used for that Wins Above Replacement calculation) has always been mid 3's, but went down to a sparkling 3.16 last season. His stuff is every bit of that label - Ace.

So, his final season is gonna cost Detroit over $10M but maybe under $15M. Cheap. And extension would be undoubtedly be in the 5/6-year range for upwards of $150 million, especially since, an older Jason Vargas just got a 4-year deal at $32 million for being a 1-1.5 WAR/year pitcher. Scherzer's valuable floor, so far, is that of a 3WAR pitcher, while he just topped out at 6.4, according to Fangraphs. That range is part of the discussion used in comparing him to Masahiro Tanaka.

I think Scherzer is still at least a 20WAR pitcher for 6 seasons. Maybe a bit more (18-24 would not be implausible). However for this analysis, Arizona needs a 6WAR+ pitcher in the fold today, in 2014, if they are to match the payroll-is-no-object moves of the LA Dodgers, who just signed Dan Haren, ex-Arizona pitcher, and 2B Guerrero to friendly terms. Or San Francisco, who corralled their own 2-time Cy Young winner in Tim Lincecum, and good vet, coming-off-unfortunate injury in Tim Hudson to go with RF Hunter Pence for about $150 million, all total. Even San Diego signed Josh Johnson, the brittle man, hoping to get a recharge in park friendly PETCO before trying to land another payday.

So, Arizona needs to step it up a notch...or just bide time until Hillary gets elected in 2016.

The Trade : Ace for Potential Ace, a vet Bullpen Ace, and Middle Infielder that hits (so far)

Arizona does have limited payroll ability to sign guys in 2014-2015, however, they maybe can entice Detroit, who had bullpen problems, to take a package of veteran closer in J.J. Putz, top pitching prospect 21-year old Archie Bradley, and 22-year old SS/2B Chris Owings.

1) JJ Putz is a decent veteran closer, that could be an option for Detroit. 1 year left on the contract. So no commitment. A 2014 push for World Series...via the motivated vet wanting that title.

2) Bradley is a future ace potential. But that is still to be seen. Yet, as a top 10 prospect, his WAR value probably can't be under the 15-20 range as his floor for 6 seasons. He's 1 year away- or likely midseason - depending on the Arizona development plan, and arbitration clock for monetary reasons.

3) Owings did well in his call up and is very young. Detroit can pair him with Jose Iglesias or Kinsler. Basically, they have a guy that can fill in the middle infield, and hits well enough so far, that maybe he spells Kinsler or picks up Jose Iglesias's slack.

But Arizona gets a top of the rotation horse they know well. They traded him off to Detroit. Now, the Cy Young award winner, is signed and traded back? The new TV revenues will help Arizona out, one can presume, as does revenue sharing system that garnered $27M for the team. Their pitching lineup is better with Scherzer, Corbin, Miley, Cahill, Delgado, and Skaggs. They shop Brandon McCarthy as back end option - getting out from under the contract a bit. And therefore, can do a Scherzer deal.

Of course, this conjecture only works if Arizona values Scherzer for potentially an offset to the LA duo of Kershaw/Greinke, or SF's trio of arms in Bumgardner, Lincecum, and Cain, not necessarily in that order.

Now, is Archie Bradley not potentially a Max Scherzer? Sure. It could happen. But is that going happen immediately in 2014? Or 2015? Is Arizona built to win somewhat today, or are they going to wait, hoping the Dodgers collapse due to age factors? (While they have similar problems on several less meatier contracts...)

Arizona has been kicking the tires on Jeff Samardzija, the 3WAR pitcher, has 4-5WAR potential ace-like stuff. And another year of control to the equation...and a year younger than Scherzer. Yet, Theo & Jed are probably asking for Bradley and Skaggs back at minimum. Does Arizona no good. And it's a poor sell to Diamondbacks fans. A CY Young winner, former AZ stud, easier to spin that trade as a good deal.

For Arizona, it can be ok in the future...but it's gonna be hard to finish .500 because you can't stop the Dodgers' bats at present.

Dombrowski too has multiple ways to do things if cash is not his constraint. But at some point it always is.  Tanaka may not post in 2014...then this idea goes bust!

And then he's back to Choo or Ellsbury as the missing piece at $125million plus. But a Tanaka add will not cost that 1st round pick - even as low as Detroit will pick - and this has a way of detracting those that know minor league talent keeps the major league team alive better.

So Dave: Swap talent, get younger, and add potential ace material and a potentially good bat to your order today. Arizona - you need a top of the rotation guy for at least 4 seasons. Scherzer will do so at a price. And Bradley is just a pop away from being cut open...hopes dashed.

Risk analysis at its finest!

  My Final Analysis

So: 2014 World Series, or bust for Detroit! 

Arizona, wait until Bradley becomes an ace...or spend on the gamble I have laid out.

Masahiro Tanaka: 25-year Japanese Starting Pitcher worth $90-100 million to any MLB club?

The business of baseball has evolved significantly over the past 35 years. As the free agent market grew more expensive, with ownerships setting aside first $3-5 million (the price of a smallish mansion) for entire player's contract in 1978, to now, $200+ million (roughly the cost of 3 Gulfstream G550s plus its operating costs). The ownerships are now, pinching pennies, and hitting hard the international markets for lower cost talents in investing at the low end on those young and impoverished souls of the Caribbean region. Here, you still can buy potential top talent at the $3-10 million for those developing years. Or pay $25-45 million for a 5-8 year contract with a Cuban defector. Those markets are fairly deep in talent still untapped, but raw, and with the typical high flame out rates seen with any labeled "can't miss" tags.

In between this range of options lays the Japanese professional leagues. For years, prior to 1990, the Nippon Professional Baseball (Puro Yakyū) was largely ignored for talent acquisition. Then, in 1995, Hideo Nomo made the successful jump to the majors. Since, approximately 50 Japanese-born players have played in at least 1 MLB game. Of those, Ichiro, Hideki, Hideo, and now, Yu Darvish, or Yu, are known by their singular name, so unusual they are.

Next up: Masahiro Tanaka. At 25 (November 1st), he has dominated the NPB in 2013, going undefeated (20-0). A 6'2" righty, who throws in the low 90s and relies heavily on his slider (28-30%), Tanaka is not necessarily comparable to Yu Darvish (6'5"), who can consistently bring it at 94-96MPH, when he chooses. However, Yu does depend on that slider (32%) to get threw his pitch sequences (best by pitch value).


Masahiro Tanaka's Velocity (Averages from NPB Tracker, akin to Brooks Baseball)

Season	Fastball	Curve	Slider	Changeup	Cut Fastball	2-Seamer	Forkball	Sinker	Special
2012	90.67	74.63	83.39	80.58	86.09	89.62	85.41
2011	90.99	75.72	83.28	80.11	88.86	89.75	86.66	83.26
2010	89.86	74.88	81.89	81.35	84.74	88.77	83.25
2009	90.99	75.20	83.42	80.46	84.38	90.10	83.29

This table does not do justice to what Tanaka's pitching really is like. He adds and subtracts quite a bit from his Fastball and 2-seamer, showing an understanding of craft, if you will, at least from the information available through 2012. (The site above came under some sort of cyber attack.)

From a scouting report compiled in August 2013, the following were key observations (italics and underlines are mine):

1) While it has some moving parts, it really looks like a low effort delivery to me. For the most part, he has been a workhorse in Japan, throwing at least 150 innings every season since he first came into the NPB. So handling a full season in the Majors is no problem.
2) He has a small injury history, but obviously no major injuries (and we will see that his fastball velocity is actually going up).
3) The conundrum is that even at age 24, his arm already has a lot of miles on it.
a: He threw 186.1 innings as an 18 year old, and he has had a few 130 plus pitch outings this year and like many Japanese aces.
b: He is strong, every pitcher is different, and he could handle all the innings when he was younger and can handle above average pitch counts when needed
c: This [possibly] means that he will not age as well as most 24 year old pitchers would, and he is due for an injury as shoulder and elbow (or just general body) fatigue catches up.

4) Tanaka seems to be more of a high ball pitcher, especially above the strike zone, than a low ball pitcher. He is going for the strikeout, not the groundball. He also has a good balance of glove side and arm side pitches.
5) He doesn't have a real sinker, but it can work like one. He can show the traditional 2-seam movement, coming back arm side, or he can throw what looks like a straight fastball down and away from lefties.
6) Though he uses the slider more, this is his best pitch in my opinion. The movement is both arm side and down, more aggressive than a traditional changeup, but not the straight down movement of a true forkball. Some of the worst swings I have ever seen in high level professional baseball have come off Tanaka's splitter. 

Tanaka's pitch usage:

Season	Fastball	Curve	Slider	Changeup	Cut Fastball	2-Seamer	Forkball	Sinker	Special
2012	36.7%	4%	28.8%	1.9%	0.4%	13.2%	15%	0%	0%
2011	39.3%	3.9%	29.6%	2.3%	0%	10%	14.9%	0%	0%
2010	38.7%	4%	29.2%	3.7%	0.3%	11.7%	12.5%	0%	0%
2009	41.9%	3.8%	30.6%	2.4%	0.3%	8%	12.9%	0%	0%

Another analysis has to be done on his metrics versus comparable players in the same league. We have very few data points, so I improvised based on the known quantities and qualities. Yu Darvish and Daisuke Matsuzaka are the most comparable track records to use when determining whether Tanaka is a $90 million investment option of worth. (Both Yu's and Daisuke contract's within the Japanese posting system topped $95 million.)

A few graphs:






What one can surmise from these few data points for each player (I'd like 10-12, but 7/8 will do):

1) Tanaka's K rate has not be influenced by his getting older, little correlative value (5%). This concerns because he does tend to go after strikeouts from the scouting report, pitching up in the zone. His K rate does not jibe with his success in 2013. However, he walks very few batters; and did escape the juiced ball effects in Japan that others fell victim to in 2013.
2) Tanaka's control and command is his best tool, as he started out better than Yu, and has trended very well downward.
3) His ERA has trended well with age too. Experience has served him well, developing into a top arm in his league.
4) His Inning Pitched pattern is more Daisuke Matsuzaka's than Yu Darvish's. At this point, it could mean nothing; or, it does bode for a breakdown in effectiveness?

So, is Masahiro's pitching worth the $90 million?

Well, a few things. The Japanese posting system is projected to change this year. It will open up the market, which will likely effect the pricing. Teams in New York and LA and even, Texas, might like to add Tanaka. Experience and successes with Asian-born players (Ryu in LA; Kuroda and Ichiro, both now in NY) makes it more likely to do more of the same.

The 2014 free agent class of pitching is rather dull in the MLB. No pitcher is under 26 hitting the market. Those with stock rising are #2 class pitchers (Garza, Santana, Shields); a couple once were the blue chippers - Lincecum and Halladay - but injuries and lost velocity pretty much makes them in-name-only pitchers. The rest are flawed in any number of ways.

With that, paying $13-16 million for 5-6 seasons (with a portion going to Japan, with currency implications having some potential impact, depending on how the posting is paid out and the value of the Yen/$), I will say this: it depends.

If a team like Chicago is willing to spend $80-95 million to land Tanaka, they best do a long hard look at the implications of his failure. Can that money be spread around to 2-4 position free agents for 3-4 years? Or a key offensive player or two with an MLB track record? Or could they target someone else?

Chicago, as a fan, has come off the worst 2-year offensive stretch in franchise history, and 5 years straight of a declining offense. The pitching, in 2013, was not their problem. (Though it never hurts to get better.) They play in a finicky ballpark. Wind blows out - look out. Wind in - nice if you could walk and steal a base. Pitchers that can't get ground balls consistently, get burnt badly. (See below graph of Tanaka's pitch location.)

Year	W	Runs	Allowed	BatAge	PitchAge	Batters	Pitchers
2013	66	600	672	27.9	28.7	56	31
2012	61	613	759	27.8	27.9	53	30
2011	71	654	756	29.3	29.4	42	22
2010	75	685	767	29.4	28.2	44	23
2009	83	707	672	29.9	28.4	45	24
2008	97	855	671	30.1	28.9	42	23
2007	85	752	690	29.3	28.4	47	22
2006	66	716	834	28.6	28	46	23
2005	79	703	714	29.7	28.2	46	22
2004	89	789	665	30.1	29.1	43	19
2003	88	724	683	31.3	28.2	42	17
2002	67	706	759	30.2	27.6	44	22
2001	88	777	701	30.7	29.8	43	20

Tanaka may be a TOR pitcher, or he could be Daisuke Matsuzaka. Good for 2 seasons, then a 2MPH velocity drop on his fastball turns him into just another bullpen guy; starting pitching fodder for vengeful hitters once made foolish by his Gyroball.   Tanaka is at his likely peak for velocity. He’s 25; able to do some good for 2, maybe, 3 seasons. Then, I’d expect a fall off due to those innings pitched starting to show their ugly head. Maybe not too. It again depends. If he lands in Chicago, the team is still a ways from being a contender in a tough division where the Pirates, Cardinals, and Reds are all still fairly young and talented. How will he personally adapt to Chicago? (The Cubs could have a reliever of Asian descent, Kyuji Fujikawa, that could also be on the team in 2014.) If in Chicago, can Masahiro adjust his stuff to a Wrigley Field that eats up guys that pitch up? (Above % of Pitches). Does he stay in command, walk very few guys, adjust to a 5-man rotation (Japan is 6-man ), and can he move a bit away from his heavy slider dependence? Would I spend $90 million on Tanaka?  No. But someone will, if allowed.