2013 MLB Mid-season Predictions & Review: Trades and Winning

We've reached the All-Star break and some story lines have unfolded. Biogenesis. Yasiel Puig. Patrick Corbin. The Dodgers, the new Yankees. The Yankees, the new budget conscience Yankees. Young players doing big things...

The Boys of Summer are at it again.

So what's will happen here on out?

 Division Races

The usual trade deadline stuff has started to unfold. As the top teams have the joys of inspiring to be the best going to the playoffs, while the under .500 teams are looking for those coveted prospects for their best, high priced or 2014 free agents that can fill the holes on their competitors. Fans argue at MLB trade rumors over what is the fair market price for Matt Garza, or Bud Norris, or now, the Chase Headleys of the market.

The Yankees should be sellers. They have the oldest team in the MLB at 31.6 years, a year older than those Dodgers, a veteran ball club, that too felt the injury bug in the first half. Their once formidable stars are so long in the tooth - Jeter, A-Rod, Rivera - that rocking chairs are being built to honor them.The biggest difference: the Dodgers have gotten healthy, infused young talent (Puig), and almost have to be buyers in their division. LA has around $250 million until my 65th birthday to invest in a winner. None of their opponents can access those type of resources going forward.

Dodgers could buy another starter (dumping Capuano) and setup man (Brandon League) before the deadline in using their best prospects Joc Pederson, Corey Seager, Zach Lee or Ross Stripling to make their first trip to the World Series since Tommy LaSorda and Orel Hershiser were a Big 80's item. Who needs a minor league when you can buy or make high prices for talent (as they just did with A-Gone, Hanley, Crawford, Kemp, and Andre Ethier) or will Clayton Kershaw?

Arizona will fall behind enough but still will make the playoffs. First, I like Arizona's team on the field. They have talent and hustle and are a team that competes. They are the antithesis of LA's spend it like a Lone Ranger film no one will watch designs. Which is part of their problem: they are nearly locked into $80 million all ready for next season, from there $86 million payroll in 2013. I can't see them adding significant payroll (even this season) unless they receive a good deal with it.

Meanwhile, they have a deep farm system with good top pitching prospects - LHP Tyler Skaggs and RHP Archie Bradley - to go with 3B Matt Davidson,  RHP Braden Shipley, SS Nick Ahmed and  SS Chris Owings. Figure they will hit big 1-3 more times like they did on Didi Gregorious and Patrick Corbin, and by 2015, they have the makings of a young group that will give LA fits but at 45-50% of the cost ($105-100 million).

But this year, they can add a bullpen arm and hope 1B Paul Goldschmidt can do a Chris Davis impersonation for the 2nd half. (Which is to say, Goldie's been good, but can he be video game good?)

Both Chicago teams are sell, sell, sell. Not unusual. Except that the White Sox have higher payroll, but less market appeal.  Both are doing a rebuild, once again. White Sox, it seemingly always piece meal. The Cubs, have two models they are working on:

 These two models are in play for all 30 teams. As fans we focus on how to win championships through trades, development, microsabermetrics/macrosabermetrics, and field management theory with players that can and do things that can either upset, or regress the path a team is on, or provide that boost to the model.

The financial model is a different story; but linked. Getting $500 million in renovations approved will produce a different Wrigley Field, and hopefully, a different atmosphere while keeping the face of the ballpark, but improving the structural problems, the team facilities, and the media and advertising dollars that teams are always in the market for more of. (Ask the Dodgers.)

Detroit, Boston, Oakland, Tampa Bay, and Texas seem like the cream of the American League. Detroit only has to play to their payroll - to beat Cleveland. They have a solid offense and top pitching right now down to their 5th starter- their problems are bullpen, after 7 innings. Cleveland has the same issue; so which one decides first and actually solves that, could be able to do it. (I don't see them getting the 2nd wild card spot.)

Oakland and Texas. Texas has the cash and the prospects. Oakland has $60 million payroll, Billy Beane and a philosophy. Both could be hurt by the Biogenesis performance enhancer fallout, if appeals are quick and timed wrong. Texas has an easier time solving their problems, but Oakland will search for a cheap OF solution - dumping CF Chris Young's contract to clear a roster spot, and shooting for another outfielder that fits their price, and talent expectations.

The Cubs might be enticed if they were offered catcher Bruce Maxwell, a pitcher with usual flaws/but upside with Young for Nate Schierholtz and David DeJesus. Scheirholtz is a corner and DeJesus played in Oakland. Both are cheap and under control while Young is on a club option, Oakland probably will not execute. Oakland likely has other ideas on how to get some offense cheap. Their pitching is in good shape until Bartolo Colon is blown up by Biogenesis. This will play out later this month.

Texas is a better Cub partner with more cards. Their need for outfield help could be more dire. But Texas might even entertain the White Sox's Alex Rios for a bat.

Boston, Baltimore, and the Rays. Each have pretty solid lineups, Rays the better upper end pitching, Boston the cash to solve a few problems (and they started), and the Rays are much like the A's, moneyball and prospects.

This race goes down to the last two weeks, and will depend on injuries, I think. Health determines what you can do until minor league call ups in September. Boston and Tampa have top talent they are willing to part with if the addition is a right fit. Baltimore has pitching prospects they won't part with - Dylan Bundy - but can't use either now. Baltimore has to hope Chris Davis is going for 60 and they made a solid addition of Feldman for 7-8 victories and long outings.

Atlanta gets to the playoffs. Phillies sell off - Cliff Lee keeps on being bantered for an option. (And the Phillies want Arizona or Texas to come knocking...)

Pittsburgh and St. Louis go to the postseason. Pittsburgh needs this. A feel-good story as GM Neal Huntington remembers vividly working for the 1995 Montreal Expos after their last gasp at success.

Pirates have allowed the least runs in baseball with the Cardinals right behind them. Pittsburgh has a below average offense, needing a bat at premier shortstop (Barmes) or right field (Snider) with both having a sub-.300 OBP and -.4 WAR between them. 1B Garrett Jones is doing little just enough to keep a job. So they, got a platoon going with Gaby Sanchez.

What works? Outfielders are plentiful for the right ask. Shortstops are too tight a market - and Jody Mercer has taken over for Barmes.They called up Jose Tabata to solve some outfield offensive woes.

I give them a 50% or better shot, but they need to take a shot at adding a real offensive potential. But finances are always a concern.

Cincinnati is a dark horse. And so, it will too come down to health for them and the NL Central.

Playoffs:

NL: Atlanta, St. Louis, Los Angeles, Pittsburgh (WC), Arizona (WC)
AL: Boston, Detroit, Texas, Oakland (WC), Tampa (WC)

AL Championship series: Boston vs. Texas
NL Championship series: Los Angeles vs. Arizona

World Series: Los Angeles vs. Boston
Los Angeles in 7 games.

But, will see.

Experimental Baseball :Is it Time for a Six-Man Rotation?

Over the past thirty years, the emphasis of pitching with a five-man rotation replaced the old guard of four-man rotations with the feeling that the extra day rest would improve performances of the starting pitcher. This idea is at least tempered by one study done by Keith Woolner in the Baseball Prospectus book: Baseball Between the Numbers: Why Everything You Know About the Game is Wrong (Prospectus Entertainment, 2006, pg. 74)


After reading this, and feeling those results at least support it is no longer tried-and-true to believe this additional rest is better than managing pitchers better “in game”, in holding down pitch counts and assessing the effort a pitcher expends in getting those late-inning hitters out, the possibility of a new paradigm (that infamous word in the business world) struck: the six-man rotation.


First, this is not a year-long idea, but rather a month-to-month adjustment of the pitching staff to maximize the benefits received from the pitching staff in general. Due to scheduling of games, the ability to adjust the staff only makes sense and reverts back to the prior usage of pitching in the 1930's and 1940's to some degree. (Additionally, the 2007 World Champion Boston Red Sox considered this rotation plan – with SP Daisuke Matsuzaka being a long-time user of this in Japan. (Fantasy Sports, April 2008, pg. 17.)) (Theo Epstein, GM of Red Sox pictured.)

The best way to explain ‘this version’ is by month.

April. 6 starters are used throughout the month, with 4 starts per man. With spring training typically not garnering enough work for the some to round into form, the extended spring training of April allows managers the ability to decide better on the 5th man in the rotation. More importantly, all starters are available for relief work, a couple times in the month. Since many have scheduled side sessions, the usage in bullpen assistance can get them the 'required' sessions. The ace of the staff, will see three 1-inning appearances. Others will see possibly longer stints, but no more than two appearances.

May and June. 5-man rotation. The sixth man goes to the bullpen as a long reliever. Bullpen set ups as usual.

July. 6 starters. #1 starter goes one game extra than others in the rotation. Does not pitch out of the bullpen. Every other starter goes four times and makes bullpen appearances.

August, September and October. 4 Starters till the end of the season. Saving the best for last. 5th and 6th starters work half-dozen appearances out of the bullpen. Leveraging extra starts down the stretch, gives the team an opportunity to win the pennant as the games matter more. If the pennant is in hand, revert back to a 5-man rotation, or other manageable scenario.

The Innings per season for the Starters are as follows:

#1 Starter - 239 IP

#2 Starter - 225 IP

#3 Starter - 204 IP

#4 Starter - 195 IP

#5 Starter - 143.6 IP

#6 Starter - 88 IP

The partial goal is to get 35 starts for the no. 1 pitcher - which is still a light total compared to the 1970's workhorse examples of Steve Carlton, Nolan Ryan, Tom Seaver, Gaylord Perry, Jim Palmer or Fergie Jenkins. But more importantly, between the no. 1, 2 and 3 starters they will see 11 relief appearances that could be in key situations. The trade up between their stuff and the typical middle reliever/closer could be important to win one, two or more games that were lost due to a poor bullpen. Leveraging these key innings with better pitchers, who are throwing anyway, could be worth exploring as a way to improve marginally a 90-win team to a 93-95 win team.

Realizing pitchers' quirks, this may not be possible. However, given a young staff that has been moved around a great deal in the minors, this could be a legit, rotational organization that pitchers adjust to, thrive in and prefer above all, after a period of adjustment. (Which might happen in a down season – allowing for a realistic time for experimentation throughout the organization.)

The way they pitch needs to be monitored much more than when they pitch.

Consistency is rare anyway, considering DL stints of most starters. With an early season 6-man rotation, the man sent to the bullpen first may have to step in for an injured pitcher. What better way to train appropriately than to have all ready started earlier on during the spring?

And knowing the in-game scenario, that every pitcher is capable of both starting and relieving to the benefit of the team, may be a psychological advantage to a team in the long term. Managers have to maximize options with position players, why not expand that to pitching staffs, like in the yester years of baseball glory.

Baseball: Mid 2007 Predictions for the playoffs

No, I'm not Sara Freder, so I won't grant you insight into your future by using talismans and crystal balls for $39.99, but I figure I can look at the halfway point of a baseball season and figure who will represent both leagues in the playoffs.

Boston. It would be tough for them to lose this division, even with the Yankees in it. With a double digit lead, and the Yankees lacking a real pitching ace, it would take a collapse like 1978 for these Bo Sox to fall short. Unlikely with Manny Ramirez, David Ortiz, Dice-K, Beckett and a host of others battle tested and not at all afraid of the vaunted Yankee mystique.

Cleveland. At 49-32, this team has done a lot with lackluster work by Travis Hafner. But with CC Sabathia, Victor Martinez and Grady Sizemore doing their jobs well, the team has a .352 OBP, 3rd in all of baseball behind Boston and the NY Yankees. This is a primary sabermetric tool to scoring runs and Cleveland will continue to do that. On the other side of the ledger, with Sabathia only walking a couple of handfuls of people, the Indians have allowed the fewest walks in MLB. While only in the middle of the pack in ERA, the Tribe should stay in 1st or 2nd in the AL Central.

Detroit. The Tigers are at it again. They are 4th in OBP, right behind Cleveland. They lead all of MLB in SLG% and thus also lead the MLB in putting runs on the board. However, many of their players are above their lifetime heads. Placido Polanco is a good little hitter, .302 lifetime. Not much power, but he's struggled to put together 150 games in a season. He's on pace for that. Does he continue to hit .330? Magglio Ordonez is another .300 hitter that is pounding it at .370. Will that continue? Realistically, those two will drop off 30-40 points and the Lion share of the scoring will have to come from Gary Sheffield and Pudge Rodriguez and Carlos Guillen.

Pitching is faltering, even with Justin Verlander no-no just recently. Their bullpen is shaky at best, with 39-year old Todd Jones still getting saves with a 5.85 ERA. Jones does not strikeout batters and that's a problem for a closer. The Tigers have been looking for answers as their number of pitchers used reflects. Eventually, these two aspects - less offense and shaky pitching - will put them in second in the AL East.

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. 6th in OBP, 5th in Runs Scored and 1st in AL West. They still get mileage out of Vlad whose 31, looks older, and has been at it for a decade or more. He is a 1st ballot HOF if he does it for 5 more years. With pesky, versatile Chone Figgins, the Angels just do it well with Mike Scioscia running the show. They have better pitching, with Lackey, Escobar and Santana eating up innings as starters and likely the best bullpen, or at least a top 5 bullpen in baseball with a 25 year old K-Rod and Scot Shields as the forces.

The Angels have two problems: Billy Beane and the Oakland A's. The AL West is a marathon usually and Oaktown is 8.5 games behind. Seattle too is only 4 games out, but managerial shakeup with Hargrove gone means likely the Mariners will not contend. The Angels are not a uber team; so, Oakland's manuevers could get them their. But realistically, the A's have not got much out of 3rd baseman Eric Chavez, SS Bobby Crosby and C Jason Kendall. Those parts are producing miserably and even with another Big 3 in Haren, Blanton and Gaudin, the A's are unlikely to surpass the Angels.

AL Playoffs: Boston, Cleveland, Detroit and Los Angeles.
AL Championship: Boston vs. Detroit.
AL WS: Boston.

National League

Chicago. Yes, yes, holy mackeral, the Cubs are going to play in the post season. They have the pieces (sans a durable right fielder) in the batting order: Soriano, Lee, Ramirez, Theriot, DeRosa, and Floyd can produce runs. Zambrano, Lilly, Marquis and Hill can hold their own most nights in the National League - 5th in the NL in ERA and 2nd overall in Strikeouts of opponents.

Lou Piniella has done everything he could to manipulate this into a winning ballclub. In a weak division, Milwaukee is just not good enough. Aside from Ben Sheets and Prince Fielder, I don't get a warm fuzzy with their players on the field. The Cubs have more experience in playoff runs with Soriano, Lee, DeRosa actually going on to play in the World Series.

New York. The city liked so much they gave them 2 teams. The Mets are star laden bunch. Coming up short last year to the mediocre WS-winning Cardinals had to put them on edge. Unfortunately, the Altanta Braves are only 4.0 games back. What gives? They have a 3.65 ERA which is 3rd in all of baseball. They have enough offense to win? Bullpen has been terrible. Aside from little lefty Billy Wagner and Pedro Feliciano, they have Mota (5.29), Sele (5.26), Shoeneweis (5.46) and Heilman (4.19) that have blown up a few games.

Mets will win - with Pedro Martinez on the mend for August/September push - but not by double digits.

NL West. It's a good question: who will win this mess?

San Diego: 27th in OBP. 22nd in SLG%. 1st in ERA (3.03 ) by a half-run over everyone else.
LA Dodgers: 11th in OBP. 23rd in SLG%. 5th in ERA (3.73).
Arizona D-backs: 25th in OBP. 19th in SLG%. 8th in ERA (3.92).

Pitching wins championships. San Diego has veterans in Maddux, Wells and Hoffman to go with Jake Peavy. Their lineup is mediocre at best, they play decent defense and their home park is best suited for 3-2, 2-1 ballgames with a good bullpen which they have.

NL Playoffs: Chicago, New York, San Diego and LA Dodgers.
NL Championships: New York and Chicago.
NL Series: Chicago. (Biased ain't I?)

Boston v. Chicago: Boston in 6. Cubs still sans a World Series title....