Cubs Trader Django: The 2013 Turning Point for Theo & Co.

While the sun has not shone brightly on the Cubs lately, this July the trade market will reflect the greatest turning point in the 20-month Theo Epstein & Jed Hoyer led front office.

The reason: pitching.

The abundance of arms ready for other pastures (Garza, Feldman, Gregg, Russell, even Samardjiza bantered) has put the Cubs in the catbird seat. 

Wasting no more time, putting out the initial feelers, entertaining a wide array of offers for their top pitching wares will demarcate the time when Theo and Jed must put up, or shut up. Show that their sabermetric analysis has conclusively divined who will play in the renovated $500 million Cubs Candyland that ownership is pushing hard for approval. The advertising (6000 sq. ft. billboard) and a plethora of night games, are the points of contention there. But money should flow freely come 2015.

As the front office broke ties to Carlos Marmol and still wish someone would take Alfonso for a long drive out to the country, the available pieces remaining for swap are intriguing for teams like the Dodgers, Giants, Padres, Rockies, Rangers, Tigers, Orioles, Red Sox, Rays and Yankees…(The Yankees can always afford interest. LA Dodgers are doing much the same.)

So who really should entice the Cubs palate? If the swap meet is on, how do two teams – one in the ‘now’ contest, the other in the ‘future’ destiny – meet on the street and barter?

Can the Cubs rudely hope for more injuries to SP and corner OF/3Bs? Yes.

But, the Cubs need SP pitching back for these moves. Their minors are low on top tier replacement arms for the ones they currently have. A few project pitchers and really, nothing of serious mention by the fan boards, Baseball America, or Scouting Book.

Yet, too, one should not overlook any prospect on can obtain since the word prospect is potential, not reality. The more stockpiling you can do for all positions, (SP, RP, SS, CF, Corner OF/3B, C) the better chance you find the solutions to a team’s long term woes.

Another thing about trading: while we can always say we want that guy, and no other, the price goes up once your opponent (mark) knows your poison. In Django Unchained, the pretend Mandingo acquirers real bounty hunters suggest to Calvin Candie that they would bid for his 3^rd best fighter, even as they REALLY want Jamie Foxx’s wife for cheap, later, once they get to Candyland. The deal is later struck on the former at dinner; but once Sam Jackson points out their real attentions, the price goes up accordingly on the latter.

So Theo & Jed, who’s interesting? 

Who is available? 

And where do SP Matt Garza, SP Scott Feldman, Closer Kevin Gregg, MR James Russell, RF Nate Schierholtz or even, 3B Luis Valbuena or 3B Cody Ransom possibly land?

Arizona: Bullpen and 3th starter help. The AZ offense is pretty solid, but their front line starting pitching is shaky. Patrick Corbin and Ian Kennedy are their top two options – as Corbin has yet to lose this year. JJ Putz (just back) and Heath Bell are their bullpen, with holes in between. 

For Arizona to get to October, their pitching needs an upgrade, even though they have prospects (Archie Bradley, Tyler Skaggs topping that list) to make for a delightful trading partner. However, Zona wants Jeff Samardijza, not Garza, and less given back. The middle ground could be just their 3^rd-4^th best pitching prospect (LHP David Holmberg), Catcher Stryker Trahan, and LHP Eury De La Rosa for Garza. While not the deal the Cubs ideally would want – top shelf SPs– it gets a useful near MLB ready LHP workhorse, a young but still developing catcher, and bullpen LOOGY for an expiring contract.

LA: 4^th starter. Scott Feldman makes sense for the Cubs to go to contract happy Dodgers. Again, their pause might be looking at their SPs. The Dodgers are a bit weak in that area, compared to AZ. So, the Cubs should equate success in getting talent as it is presented. Most prevalent in LA is Outfielders. With Yasiel Puig doing things, and Ethier, Kemp, and Crawford going nowhere too fast due to salary, their best expendable asset is CF Joc Pederson.

Lefty Pederson is a five tool type – hitting at all stops for average, runs well, power, and is patient. (Something Puig is NOT.) Pederson won't see the MLB as a starter in LA, so even though the Cubs have top prospects Albert Almora and Jorge Soler, how about 3 top tier OFers? Brett Jackson is older, and may project to a 4th OF. 

And Soler and Almora are not that far along in the minor league grooming - so getting a more polished OF with all the tools works.  Bullpen Banter have Pederson as having the best hit tool in the Sally League, and improving CF skills so that he may stick there.

The Dodger blue does have RHP Ross Stripling, LHP RobRasmussen, and plausibly their top SP prospect RHP Zach Lee. But is Feldman something that fits for them? 

No. That all said, Feldman has never thrown a ball in Dodger Stadium. As a rental, he probably does not fit the LA glitzy, buy-the-best-cause-we-have-money mode.  Ricky Nolasco or Garza would better attract their eyes as the Dodgers whittle away the lead of Arizona in the race. (Now at 5 games - even with bad defense, hurt pitchers and position players, the Dodgers are there.

Colorado: Bullpen. Kevin Gregg would likely be their particular poison. Yet Colorado has little pitching (have they truly and consistently ever?) So the Cubs would be looking for depth and numbers with Colorado - 2 prospects of their choosing - RHP Chad Bettis comes in the deal.

San Diego: Starter or Closer. Have a catcher in Austin Hedges that would be a nice addition, and is currently blocked by another prospect Yasmani Grandal in the bigs. LHP Robbie Erlin is up in the bigs - but is not considered premier option with a fastball like Barry Zito circa 2004 (89MPH), curve, change, slider, but could could round out a 2-for-1 trade say if Garza is dealt.

Giants: Pitching? Really? May even want an corner OF. Cubs can do both options. This could be their best partner for the right combination. If the Giants can't handle not being in the NL Playoffs again, and winning it, again.

RHP Kyle Crick, RHP Chris Stratton, RHP Chris Heston and C Andrew Susac could fill the bill for Garza and Nate Schierholtz and possibly a minor leaguer from Chicago going back. 

The remaining group are more of the same.

Tampa: Starter.

Texas: Starter.

Baltimore: Starter.

Red Sox: Starter.

Yankees: Corner OF/1B.

Out of this collage of prospects, you hope to build a 25 man dynasty that lasts for 2-3 years.

If the Cubs could get 2 or 3 prospects to hit big, to go with potential position stars Almora, Soler, Bryant, and Rizzo, then 2015 becomes a watchable Cubs product. 

At present, one feels the ship sinking before it leaves dry dock. The bullpen is chalkboard nails by that 3^rd grade teacher with too much lipstick and looks like Medusa on a good hair day.

Else, the regime of Theo will be known for all the resources he exploited in Boston (a team that did have luxuries built in – money and prospects), but could not truly duplicate and rebuild the Cubs into a dynamic and quality organization.

This is the tipping point – make no mistake – because:

1) The team will not get better from trading its best assets off before 2014 season

2) The onerous of obtaining good talent falls to their collective minds

3) The remaining parts are platoon types on offense, 3^rd starters types, ignoring the bullpen that has to be rebuilt better than the 2013 turned out to be

In short, the Ides of July are upon the Cubs.

The Django Cubs better make the most of its wares.

Cubs & Yankees: Destine To Meet in The 2009 World Series?

It would be nice to see those Cubs get back to the place where they belong. (Ok, so they have not belong to the World Series since my great-great -grandpa was watching Ty Cobb lace them up.)

But with opening up of the $1.5 Billion House-that-A-Rod-financed-through-Public- Steroids a.k.a. the new Yankee Stadium, and the Cubs making a cameo in April, I think it only fitting that the Wrigley wonders and new digs be home to the 2009 World Series.

Wrigley is going to be a historic landmark that sees less usage by 2016-17. Why you may wonder? The 2016 Olympics makes it a hope they build a brand new baseball stadium with a Chicago heart of Wrigley Field pumping inside of it. It seems far fetched, but with the stadium renovations becoming a yearly task, a new building with the ivy character and internet modernization would be snappy. (Assuming the Olympics, else, no go.)

But looking at the present, 101 seasons and the Yankees. The Yankees doubled down like a gambling addict in spending three times as much as those AIG executives got in bonuses. So with all that cash, it's a lock to be in the playoffs. Right?Well not so fast there, partner. You better get a blackjack dealer that isn't called Doc. (Or hope C.C. is enough medicine for your ailing pitching. And A.J. is more a Jack-Ass when it comes to getting his meds after injuries.)
The Cubs are hoping Fukudome does not Fuk themout of a playoff run. Or that Harden, Dempster, and/or Big Z fail miserably to repeat last season's pitching excellence. Or that Milton Bradley does not break the Boardwalk (or bat) in showing he cares so much about his performance for those lovable Cubbies. Geovany needs to keep his head. That's all. That's all...???

When it's all said, and written about, the Cubs can go far in the weak NL Central. Then on to Philly, NYC or LA, or maybe Florida Sunshine in October. The Yankees have two teams in Boston and Tampa now that can play Yankee ball better than the Yankees. More talent in the minors too.

I don't count them damn Yankees out - but unless they are going to buy every fantasy star in MLB, I have my doubts.

Clinched!:Someday We’ll Go All The Way!!!

In eager anticipation of the 2008 NL Central title by your Chicago Cubs, I am posting the new and only theme song the Cubs will ever need again. As rock legend Eddie Vedder belts out the best (or the most recent best) song about baseball glory.

The Cubs are at the edge of greatness once again. The last time they appeared in back-to-back post seasons was nearly the time William Howard Taft was taking office. (Right) (His half-brother, Charles, owned the Cubs for a short time.)

In honor of these heady times, A video masterpiece by fahrenba with Vedder’s “Someday We’ll Go All The Way” supporting the pics is in order.



The Cubs are blessed to have such diehards.

In a world filled with greed, as Vedder states, and the videophotographer points out, while in the simple act of playing a child’s game to such excellence in front of 3 million plus fans yearly, makes up for that avarice seen in many, many folks. It has to, or else, the world becomes rather meaningless.

The 2008 Cubs year has seen many runs on history.

Winning more games than in a very long time. (1984)
Home dominance. (53-26, after today, 54-26.)
A trio of 15-game winners. (Hopefully…)
The resurrection of a career in Kerry Wood.
A no-hitter by Carlos Zambrano. (Milt Pappas, 1972. I was 4 weeks old.)

But to understand the Cubs, Vedder’s lyrics (below) tell you all you need to know. Good Luck, Cubs. See you in LA, twice, hopefully.

Someday We’ll Go All The Way
Yeah, don’t let them say that it’s just a game.
Well, I’ve seen other teams and it is never the same.
When your born in Chicago, you’re blessed and you’re healed,
The first time you walk into Wrigley Field.
Our Heroes wear pinstripes, heroes in blue,
Give us the chance to feel like heroes do.
Whether we’ll win, and if we should lose,
we know Someday we’ll go all the way.
Yeah, someday we’ll go all the way.


We are one with the Cubs, with the Cubs we’re in love.
Yeah, Hold our heads high as the underdogs.
We are not fairweather, but foulweather fans.
Like brothers in arms, in the streets and the stands.
There’s magic in the Ivy and the old score board.
The same one I stared at as a kid keeping score.
In a world full of greed, I could never want more.
And Someday we’ll go all the way.
Yeah, someday we’ll go all the way.

And Someday we’ll go all the way.
Yeah!! someday we’ll go all the way.

And Here’s to the men and the legends we’ve known.
Teaching us faith and giving us hope.
United we stand and united we’ll fall
Down to our knees the day we win it all.
Yeah Ernie Banks said, “oh, let’s play two”.
Did he mean two hundred years?
In the same ballpark, our diamond, our jewel.
The home of our joy and our tears.
Keeping traditions, and wishes made new,
The place where our grandfathers’ fathers they grew.
The spiritual feeling, if I ever knew.
If you ain’t been, I am sorry for you.
And when the day comes for that last winning run, and I’m crying and covered in beer.
I look to the sky and know I was right today.

Someday we’ll go all the way.
Yeah! someday we’ll go all the way.

Yeah! someday we’ll go all the way.
Yeah! someday we’ll go all the way!
Yeah! someday we’ll go all the way!!
Yeah! someday we’ll go all the way!!!
Oh! someday we’ll go all the way!!!
Yeah! someday we’ll go all the way!!!
Yeah! someday we’ll go all the way.

Songwriter Eddie Vedder was born Edward Louis Severson III in Chicago in the north suburb of Evanston. He is the front man of 1990’s alternative/grunge rock, then Seattle-based, Pearl Jam. He won a Golden Globe award for his Into the Wild soundtrack. He is a lifelong Cubs fan. God Bless him.

Ownership of Cubs: Just a Few Good Men

When local Real Estate Magnate Samuel Zell acquired the Tribune Company (and the Chicago Cubs) at the insistence of the Chandler Family, many thought Zell’s overly cozy relationship to the financiers of the deal, Merrill Lynch and CitiGroup, was a bad omen of things to come on Wall Street. Both Citi and Merrill were advising the Tribune Company on the viability of the prospective bidders, termed “staple financing”, as in Staples, “we got that, too.” (In actuality it is called staple financing because paperwork is often stapled onto the deal’s term sheet to help a seller develop a robust auction by offering on-the-spot financing to all “potential” suitors. Wall Street speak…)

The fact Zell had Merrill Lynch represent him in a $39 billion sale of Equity Office Properties to the Blackstone Group likely meant that any bid made on the Tribune Company by Zell was going to be promoted over the other candidates. (Viagranaires Eli Broad and Ronald W. Burkle also submitted an exact dollar amount bid of $8.2 billion.)

So, in April 2007, Zell became commander-in-chief of the most woe-begotten baseball franchise, the lovable losers, the Chicago Cubs.

The Cubs in the 2006-2007 Hot Stove cooked up an entire pot of free agents signings to the tune of “Hey, Hey, Holy Mackerel!”, posting over $300 million in contracts. The Cubs replaced two-fifths of their starting rotation, signed the premier LF on the market in Alfonso Soriano to a 8-year, $136-million contract and resigned 3B Aramis Ramirez for over $70 million. With additional backup players the money spent amounted to 3 seasons worth of salaries for a top-10 payroll in the 2007 season. (But barely more than A-Rod’s contract.)

Primarily, this was due to the expectant sale of the Tribune Company, with the new owners on the hook for the ballplayer’s salaries. Long-time marketing guru John McDonough acquired the reins from ex-team president Andy MacPhail, who had not spent with the dangerous abandon of a drunken sailor on liberty in Thailand. (Is there any other kind…of sailor?)

McDonough would resign his commission after only one season at the top, heading to the moribund Chicago Blackhawks as their new field commander.

“Slow, steady and unspectacular success,” was often attributed to MacPhail’s rotation as Cubs’ OIC. The Cubs managed to reach the playoffs in 1998 and 2003 with him heading the chain of command. Yet, while the Cubs put meat in the seats, racking up over 3 million yearly visits at the 2nd highest average ticket price (via the 2007 Team Marketing Report), the financial success rarely translated to consistent winning.

Injuries to star players, poor drafting of everyday players and anti-sabermetric philosophies plagued the Cubs, more than anything else. (Franchise Success Theory Here)

As 2008 unfolds with a 12-6 start, while hot imports RF Kosuke Fukudome and CF Reed Johnson bringing sparks to an all ready talented lineup, a new man stands atop that ivy-covered wall: Generalissimo Sam Zell.

His Tribune acquisition has gone south – as various reports have judged this deal negatively, and the ad revenue analysis of newspaper/media conglomerates falter quarterly – and thus, the Chicago Cubs might find Sam Zell meddling in their baseball affairs if the future finds no one will buy the team.

But why?

Zell has decided on a 3-pronged attack in selling off of the Chicago Cubs entity: The landmark stadium, the naming rights of the facility, and the Chicago National League ball club. Wrigley Field is being shopped to an Illinois-controlled agency – with the payment to be made in noncash assets, possibly deferred, likely a real estate swap of some sort. This arrangement is needed to avoid capital gains taxes that Wrigley’s outright sale would incur. This proposal has been unsuccessful, as Zell backtracks like a Bush, to a new offering plan for the ball team: with and without the stadium.

(Picture from http://wrigley-field-pictures-photos.blogspot.com/)

A more confusing (and disturbing) tactic is the naming rights idea – to rename the ballpark in some corporate phallic term – just to generate more cash. However, no true Cubs fan would ever call Wrigley Field, “Google Park” or “Amazon Stadium” or “Microsoft Field.” But somehow, Herr Zell hopes a marketing dunce will get his bosses to pony up $100-300 million for a mediocre tagline to an all ready historic name and place.

Lastly, the ball team would be sold. Tribune brass had estimated $1 billion for the entire lot, but given the stipulations and separate deals, what once was a hot commodity with Chicago Wolves owner Don Levin, Phoenix Suns CEO Jerry Colangelo, Dallas Mavericks impresario Mark Cuban among others submitting bids or inquiring about purchase, has grown silent as the Wrigley grass in a bitter cold November.

More importantly, to theatre commander Zell, is that this deal must be made to generate the requisite cash to keep his private corporation credit worthy as debt obligations threaten to choke his fledgling entity later on this year. Layoffs of over 400 journalists, pressmen and middle managers at the LA Times, Chicago Tribune, Orlando Sentinel, Newsday and others, to go along with the $125-million dollar liquidation of real estate in Hollywood is only the beginning of whatever General Zell envisions as necessary.

Last year, Zell said, “We didn’t do this deal to figure out what to get rid of,” but that has become the focus, as Newsday is being added to the list of things to sell with an estimated $500 million price tag. But once again, Zell has convoluted that deal. (The Truth: You can’t handle the truth!)

The Cubs might become an Oakland A’s, no frills – styled franchise, if Zell gets stuck with the ownership of the team too long. Making drastic cuts, selling off players for mediocre minor league prospects, reducing payroll while keeping ticket prices constant, all in the name of a buck to run his horse-and-buggy newspaper concerns.

With a successful 2008 season, resulting in a World Series title? , don’t be too surprised if the Cubs are still in “ownership limbo” that a “Zell Hell” begins, and high-priced players are jettisoned.
Hopefully, a few, good baseball-minded men will step in to buy the Cubs away from Colonel “Samuel Zell” Jessup. Because, I don’t want him on that wall, nor do I need him on that ivy-kissed wall.

“You’re dismissed, private Zell.”

Baseball: Mid 2007 Predictions for the playoffs

No, I'm not Sara Freder, so I won't grant you insight into your future by using talismans and crystal balls for $39.99, but I figure I can look at the halfway point of a baseball season and figure who will represent both leagues in the playoffs.

Boston. It would be tough for them to lose this division, even with the Yankees in it. With a double digit lead, and the Yankees lacking a real pitching ace, it would take a collapse like 1978 for these Bo Sox to fall short. Unlikely with Manny Ramirez, David Ortiz, Dice-K, Beckett and a host of others battle tested and not at all afraid of the vaunted Yankee mystique.

Cleveland. At 49-32, this team has done a lot with lackluster work by Travis Hafner. But with CC Sabathia, Victor Martinez and Grady Sizemore doing their jobs well, the team has a .352 OBP, 3rd in all of baseball behind Boston and the NY Yankees. This is a primary sabermetric tool to scoring runs and Cleveland will continue to do that. On the other side of the ledger, with Sabathia only walking a couple of handfuls of people, the Indians have allowed the fewest walks in MLB. While only in the middle of the pack in ERA, the Tribe should stay in 1st or 2nd in the AL Central.

Detroit. The Tigers are at it again. They are 4th in OBP, right behind Cleveland. They lead all of MLB in SLG% and thus also lead the MLB in putting runs on the board. However, many of their players are above their lifetime heads. Placido Polanco is a good little hitter, .302 lifetime. Not much power, but he's struggled to put together 150 games in a season. He's on pace for that. Does he continue to hit .330? Magglio Ordonez is another .300 hitter that is pounding it at .370. Will that continue? Realistically, those two will drop off 30-40 points and the Lion share of the scoring will have to come from Gary Sheffield and Pudge Rodriguez and Carlos Guillen.

Pitching is faltering, even with Justin Verlander no-no just recently. Their bullpen is shaky at best, with 39-year old Todd Jones still getting saves with a 5.85 ERA. Jones does not strikeout batters and that's a problem for a closer. The Tigers have been looking for answers as their number of pitchers used reflects. Eventually, these two aspects - less offense and shaky pitching - will put them in second in the AL East.

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. 6th in OBP, 5th in Runs Scored and 1st in AL West. They still get mileage out of Vlad whose 31, looks older, and has been at it for a decade or more. He is a 1st ballot HOF if he does it for 5 more years. With pesky, versatile Chone Figgins, the Angels just do it well with Mike Scioscia running the show. They have better pitching, with Lackey, Escobar and Santana eating up innings as starters and likely the best bullpen, or at least a top 5 bullpen in baseball with a 25 year old K-Rod and Scot Shields as the forces.

The Angels have two problems: Billy Beane and the Oakland A's. The AL West is a marathon usually and Oaktown is 8.5 games behind. Seattle too is only 4 games out, but managerial shakeup with Hargrove gone means likely the Mariners will not contend. The Angels are not a uber team; so, Oakland's manuevers could get them their. But realistically, the A's have not got much out of 3rd baseman Eric Chavez, SS Bobby Crosby and C Jason Kendall. Those parts are producing miserably and even with another Big 3 in Haren, Blanton and Gaudin, the A's are unlikely to surpass the Angels.

AL Playoffs: Boston, Cleveland, Detroit and Los Angeles.
AL Championship: Boston vs. Detroit.
AL WS: Boston.

National League

Chicago. Yes, yes, holy mackeral, the Cubs are going to play in the post season. They have the pieces (sans a durable right fielder) in the batting order: Soriano, Lee, Ramirez, Theriot, DeRosa, and Floyd can produce runs. Zambrano, Lilly, Marquis and Hill can hold their own most nights in the National League - 5th in the NL in ERA and 2nd overall in Strikeouts of opponents.

Lou Piniella has done everything he could to manipulate this into a winning ballclub. In a weak division, Milwaukee is just not good enough. Aside from Ben Sheets and Prince Fielder, I don't get a warm fuzzy with their players on the field. The Cubs have more experience in playoff runs with Soriano, Lee, DeRosa actually going on to play in the World Series.

New York. The city liked so much they gave them 2 teams. The Mets are star laden bunch. Coming up short last year to the mediocre WS-winning Cardinals had to put them on edge. Unfortunately, the Altanta Braves are only 4.0 games back. What gives? They have a 3.65 ERA which is 3rd in all of baseball. They have enough offense to win? Bullpen has been terrible. Aside from little lefty Billy Wagner and Pedro Feliciano, they have Mota (5.29), Sele (5.26), Shoeneweis (5.46) and Heilman (4.19) that have blown up a few games.

Mets will win - with Pedro Martinez on the mend for August/September push - but not by double digits.

NL West. It's a good question: who will win this mess?

San Diego: 27th in OBP. 22nd in SLG%. 1st in ERA (3.03 ) by a half-run over everyone else.
LA Dodgers: 11th in OBP. 23rd in SLG%. 5th in ERA (3.73).
Arizona D-backs: 25th in OBP. 19th in SLG%. 8th in ERA (3.92).

Pitching wins championships. San Diego has veterans in Maddux, Wells and Hoffman to go with Jake Peavy. Their lineup is mediocre at best, they play decent defense and their home park is best suited for 3-2, 2-1 ballgames with a good bullpen which they have.

NL Playoffs: Chicago, New York, San Diego and LA Dodgers.
NL Championships: New York and Chicago.
NL Series: Chicago. (Biased ain't I?)

Boston v. Chicago: Boston in 6. Cubs still sans a World Series title....